by Eric J. Lyman
ROME, May 9 (Xinhua) -- After more than two months of fruitless negotiations aimed at establishing a new government, Italian President Sergio Mattarella formally proposed the formation a kind of "neutral," caretaker government this week. And for the first time ever in Italy, major political parties turned their backs on the president's request.
Analysts said the developments could undermine the power of the important, largely non-political, office of the Italian president, who is the country's head of state.
"Whatever the outcome of the current crisis, these latest moves could reduce the influence of the presidency," Vera Capperucci, a professor of contemporary history at Rome's LUISS University, told Xinhua. "It sets a precedent the first time a formal request from the presidency is unheeded. The next time, and the time after that, it becomes much easier."
NEUTRAL GOV'T
Mattarella said last week he would give political parties until Monday, May 7, to form a coalition that would comprise a parliamentary majority and said that if they failed, he would begin the process of forming a "neutral" government. No deal was reached, with the parties saying they would keep trying to reach an agreement for an alliance. Leaders of two of the biggest parties also called for new elections in July.
"None of this has ever happened before," Daniela Giannetti, a political scientist with the University of Bologna, said in an interview. "Italy has never tried for a 'neutral' government before, and political parties have never disregarded a call like this from the president."
The March 4 general election was inconclusive: four parties ended up with at least 14 percent of the vote, but none approached the 50-percent threshold needed to form a government on its own. Negotiations on alliances since the vote have failed to gain traction.
Analysts said Mattarella's call for a non-partisan "neutral" government was calculated to make the notion more palatable for anti-establishment parties like the Five-Star Movement and the Northern League, which emerged from the March 4 vote as the first and third strongest parties, respectively.
Under normal circumstances, a technical government would be formed to run things during a political stalemate. A "neutral" government, which would also be a first for Italy, would have less power to make policy than a technical government and it would be easier to dissolve if parties came to an agreement to form a coalition.
"Those parties have taken a strong stance against any kind of temporary government, no matter what form," Giannetti said. "They seem intent to have new elections as soon as possible."
TURNOUT
The soonest such a vote could take place is probably July 22, a date opposed by the Democratic Party and Forza Italia, the second and fourth strongest parties, respectively, because of how close the vote would be to August vacations. They say the date could suppress turnout.
In March, nearly 73 percent of eligible voters cast ballots, lower than average for Italy. Some models say that a late-July election could push turnout to as low as 50-percent.
"You could have a case where you have a less representative percentage of the population changing the outcome of the last vote," Giannetti said.
A lower turnout might also hurt the two parties pushing for the election, since they disproportionally draw support from younger voters, who are more likely to be away from home in July and unable to vote.
But the biggest long-term consequence of the latest developments, according to Capperucci, could be the steadying influence of Mattarella and future Italian presidents.
"Italy has had a history of political instability, but the role of the president has been the one reliable institution," Capperucci said. "If that is no longer the case, it could have very worrying consequences."